China Under-Reported Coronavirus Cases By 86%

A new study’s estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 infections was 86% of all infections in China prior to the January 23, 2020 travel restrictions.

And, the per person transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections.

Moreover, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented SARS-CoV-2 cases, reported this study published on March 16, 2020.

These researchers built a mathematical model that combined the movements of people with infections among 375 Chinese cities between January 10 to 23rd, prior to the launching of travel restrictions in Hubei province China going into effect.

These researcher’s observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness.

‘These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.’

‘Furthermore, this estimate is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease,’ concluded these researchers.

A 2nd study published in Science on March 6, 2020, also noted the effect of travel restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 in China. These researchers said travel bans had "quite a modest effect" on the spread of the coronavirus in China.

But, they did have a more marked effect on the international spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

Outbreak news is published by Coronavirus Today